Matchday 4 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 14, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Barcelona 6–0 Valencia: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Valencia 6–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Barcelona win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Barcelona were expected to score 2.7 here and Valencia 0.8.
What the goals say
Luck index +16 Barcelona about even · −16 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 8, 2 end level, Valencia win 0.
- 1 BAR 3 VAL 2
- 2 BAR 3 VAL 2
- 3 BAR 4 VAL 2
- 4 BAR 2 VAL 0
- 5 BAR 3 VAL 1
- 6 BAR 4 VAL 1
- 7 BAR 4 VAL 0
- 8 BAR 5 VAL 0
- 9 BAR 1 VAL 1
- 10 BAR 1 VAL 1
The goals
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Fermin Lopez (Barcelona) | 1–0 | +25% Barcelona |
| 2. 53' | Raphinha (Barcelona) | 2–0 | +11% Barcelona |
| 3. 56' | Fermin Lopez (Barcelona) | 3–0 | +2% Barcelona |
| 4. 66' | Raphinha (Barcelona) | 4–0 | +0% Barcelona |
| 5. 76' | Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) | 5–0 | +0% Barcelona |
| 6. 86' | Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) | 6–0 | +0% Barcelona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2025-26
- Sevilla 2–2 Elche Sep 12, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Getafe 2–0 Oviedo Sep 13, 2025 · replay 80% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Real Madrid Sep 13, 2025 · replay 62% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 0–1 Alavés Sep 13, 2025 · replay 42% for Alavés
- Atlético 2–0 Villarreal Sep 13, 2025 · replay 58% for Atlético
- Celta 1–1 Girona Sep 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Levante 2–2 Betis Sep 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Osasuna 2–0 Rayo Sep 14, 2025 · replay 58% for Osasuna
- Espanyol 3–2 Mallorca Sep 15, 2025 · replay 58% for Espanyol