Matchday 5 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 19, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 3–1 Real Sociedad: lucky or expected?
Betis beat Real Sociedad 3–1, and the goals lean Betis’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Real Sociedad, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 2.0 here and Real Sociedad 1.3. An own goal helped Betis.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 3 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 Betis lucky · −35 Real Sociedad
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 5, 2 end level, Real Sociedad win 3.
- 1 BET 1 RSO 0
- 2 BET 2 RSO 1
- 3 BET 2 RSO 0
- 4 BET 2 RSO 0
- 5 BET 3 RSO 0
- 6 BET 2 RSO 2
- 7 BET 2 RSO 2
- 8 BET 1 RSO 3
- 9 BET 1 RSO 2
- 10 BET 2 RSO 3
The goals
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Cucho Hernandez (Betis) | 1–0 | +22% Betis |
| 2. 13' | Brais Mendez (Real Sociedad) | 1–1 | +22% Real Sociedad |
| 3. 49' | Alex Remiro (Betis, own goal) | 2–1 | +29% Betis |
| 4. 69' | Pablo Fornals (Betis) | 3–1 | +8% Betis |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Betis win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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