luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 5 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 20, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Valencia 2–0 Athletic: lucky or expected?

Valencia beat Athletic 2–0, and the goals lean Valencia’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Valencia were expected to score 1.6 here and Athletic 1.0.

Full time

Goals
Valencia 2
Athletic Club 0

September 20, 2025

Luck index +36 Valencia lucky · −36 Athletic

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Valencia win 5, 3 end level, Athletic win 2.

  1. 1 VAL 4 ATH 3
  2. 2 VAL 1 ATH 0
  3. 3 VAL 1 ATH 0
  4. 4 VAL 3 ATH 1
  5. 5 VAL 3 ATH 0
  6. 6 VAL 2 ATH 2
  7. 7 VAL 0 ATH 0
  8. 8 VAL 1 ATH 1
  9. 9 VAL 0 ATH 2
  10. 10 VAL 1 ATH 2

The goals

Valencia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Valencia was ahead in it, below while Athletic was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 73' Baptiste Santamaría (Valencia) 1–0 +39% Valencia
90+3' Hugo Duro (Valencia) 2–0

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Valencia win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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