Matchday 6 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 1–1 Girona: lucky or expected?
Athletic and Girona drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Athletic win 4 of 10, Girona 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.4 here and Girona 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 |
 Girona | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −9 Athletic about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 4, 3 end level, Girona win 3.
- 1 ATH 1 GIR 0
- 2 ATH 1 GIR 0
- 3 ATH 3 GIR 1
- 4 ATH 4 GIR 1
- 5 ATH 1 GIR 1
- 6 ATH 1 GIR 1
- 7 ATH 2 GIR 2
- 8 ATH 0 GIR 2
- 9 ATH 1 GIR 2
- 10 ATH 1 GIR 2
The goals
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Azzedine Ounahi (Girona) | 0–1 | +25% Girona |
| 2. 48' | Mikel Jauregizar (Athletic) | 1–1 | +33% Athletic |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
- Celta 1–1 Betis Aug 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Espanyol 2–2 Valencia Sep 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Levante 1–4 Real Madrid Sep 23, 2025 · replay 68% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–2 Villarreal Sep 23, 2025 · replay 60% for Villarreal
- Getafe 1–1 Alavés Sep 24, 2025 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Atlético 3–2 Rayo Sep 24, 2025 · replay 71% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Mallorca Sep 24, 2025 · replay 63% for Real Sociedad
- Osasuna 1–1 Elche Sep 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Oviedo 1–3 Barcelona Sep 25, 2025 · replay 83% for Barcelona