Matchday 6 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 24, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 3–2 Rayo: lucky or expected?
Atlético beat Rayo 3–2, and the goals lean Atlético’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Rayo, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 1.6 here and Rayo 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 3 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +29 Atlético lucky · −29 Rayo
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 6, 3 end level, Rayo win 1.
- 1 ATM 1 RAY 0
- 2 ATM 2 RAY 1
- 3 ATM 2 RAY 0
- 4 ATM 3 RAY 1
- 5 ATM 3 RAY 0
- 6 ATM 4 RAY 1
- 7 ATM 0 RAY 0
- 8 ATM 0 RAY 0
- 9 ATM 0 RAY 0
- 10 ATM 1 RAY 2
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 15' | Julian Alvarez (Atlético) | 1–0 | +23% Atlético |
| 2. 45+1' | Pep Chavarría (Rayo) | 1–1 | +29% Rayo |
| 3. 77' | Álvaro García (Rayo) | 1–2 | +43% Rayo |
| 4. 80' | Julian Alvarez (Atlético) | 2–2 | +44% Atlético |
| 5. 88' | Julian Alvarez (Atlético) | 3–2 | +48% Atlético |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
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- Athletic 1–1 Girona Sep 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws
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- Sevilla 1–2 Villarreal Sep 23, 2025 · replay 60% for Villarreal
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- Real Sociedad 1–0 Mallorca Sep 24, 2025 · replay 63% for Real Sociedad
- Osasuna 1–1 Elche Sep 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Oviedo 1–3 Barcelona Sep 25, 2025 · replay 83% for Barcelona