Matchday 6 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Levante 1–4 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Levante 4–1, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Levante were expected to score 1.1 here and Real Madrid 2.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Levante | 1 |
 Real Madrid | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index +32 Real Madrid lucky · −32 Levante
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 LEV 2 RMA 1
- 2 LEV 2 RMA 0
- 3 LEV 1 RMA 1
- 4 LEV 1 RMA 1
- 5 LEV 0 RMA 4
- 6 LEV 0 RMA 3
- 7 LEV 0 RMA 2
- 8 LEV 1 RMA 3
- 9 LEV 0 RMA 1
- 10 LEV 1 RMA 2
The goals
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 28' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | 0–1 | +28% Real Madrid |
| 2. 38' | Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid) | 0–2 | +18% Real Madrid |
| 3. 54' | Karl Etta Eyong (Levante) | 1–2 | +16% Levante |
| 4. 64' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid, penalty) | 1–3 | +14% Real Madrid |
| 5. 66' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 1–4 | +3% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
- Celta 1–1 Betis Aug 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Espanyol 2–2 Valencia Sep 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Girona Sep 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Sevilla 1–2 Villarreal Sep 23, 2025 · replay 60% for Villarreal
- Getafe 1–1 Alavés Sep 24, 2025 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Atlético 3–2 Rayo Sep 24, 2025 · replay 71% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Mallorca Sep 24, 2025 · replay 63% for Real Sociedad
- Osasuna 1–1 Elche Sep 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Oviedo 1–3 Barcelona Sep 25, 2025 · replay 83% for Barcelona