Matchday 9 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 19, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 1–1 Real Sociedad: lucky or expected?
Celta and Real Sociedad drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Celta win 5 of 10, Real Sociedad 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.9 here and Real Sociedad 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −12 Celta about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 5, 2 end level, Real Sociedad win 3.
- 1 CEL 1 RSO 0
- 2 CEL 2 RSO 1
- 3 CEL 2 RSO 0
- 4 CEL 3 RSO 1
- 5 CEL 3 RSO 0
- 6 CEL 1 RSO 1
- 7 CEL 1 RSO 1
- 8 CEL 0 RSO 2
- 9 CEL 1 RSO 2
- 10 CEL 3 RSO 4
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 20' | Pablo Durán (Celta) | 1–0 | +23% Celta |
| 2. 89' | Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad) | 1–1 | +49% Real Sociedad |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 9, 2025-26
- Oviedo 0–2 Espanyol Oct 17, 2025 · replay 52% for Espanyol
- Sevilla 1–3 Mallorca Oct 18, 2025 · replay 44% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 2–1 Girona Oct 18, 2025 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 2–2 Betis Oct 18, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Osasuna Oct 18, 2025 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Elche 0–0 Athletic Oct 19, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Levante 0–3 Rayo Oct 19, 2025 · replay 48% for Rayo
- Getafe 0–1 Real Madrid Oct 19, 2025 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Alavés 0–0 Valencia Oct 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws