Matchday 9 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 19, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Levante 0–3 Rayo: lucky or expected?
Rayo beat Levante 3–0, but the goals call it even: Rayo win 3 of 10, Levante 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Levante were expected to score 1.2 here and Rayo 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Levante | 0 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +52 Rayo lucky · −52 Levante
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 4, 3 end level, Rayo win 3.
- 1 LEV 1 RAY 0
- 2 LEV 1 RAY 0
- 3 LEV 1 RAY 0
- 4 LEV 3 RAY 1
- 5 LEV 1 RAY 1
- 6 LEV 0 RAY 0
- 7 LEV 0 RAY 0
- 8 LEV 0 RAY 2
- 9 LEV 0 RAY 1
- 10 LEV 0 RAY 1
The goals
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 12' | Jorge De Frutos (Rayo) | 0–1 | +26% Rayo |
| 2. 25' | Jorge De Frutos (Rayo) | 0–2 | +19% Rayo |
| 3. 65' | Álvaro García (Rayo) | 0–3 | +3% Rayo |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Rayo win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2025-26
- Oviedo 0–2 Espanyol Oct 17, 2025 · replay 52% for Espanyol
- Sevilla 1–3 Mallorca Oct 18, 2025 · replay 44% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 2–1 Girona Oct 18, 2025 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 2–2 Betis Oct 18, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Osasuna Oct 18, 2025 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Elche 0–0 Athletic Oct 19, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Celta 1–1 Real Sociedad Oct 19, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 0–1 Real Madrid Oct 19, 2025 · replay 67% for Real Madrid
- Alavés 0–0 Valencia Oct 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws