Matchday 11 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 1, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Valencia 4–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.2 here and Valencia 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 4 |
 Valencia | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +20 Real Madrid about even · −20 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Valencia win 1.
- 1 RMA 2 VAL 1
- 2 RMA 1 VAL 0
- 3 RMA 2 VAL 1
- 4 RMA 3 VAL 1
- 5 RMA 3 VAL 0
- 6 RMA 4 VAL 1
- 7 RMA 5 VAL 1
- 8 RMA 2 VAL 2
- 9 RMA 2 VAL 2
- 10 RMA 1 VAL 2
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 19' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid, penalty) | 1–0 | +23% Real Madrid |
| 2. 31' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 2–0 | +12% Real Madrid |
| 3. 44' | Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) | 3–0 | +3% Real Madrid |
| 4. 82' | Alvaro Fernandez (Real Madrid) | 4–0 | +0% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Getafe 2–1 Girona Oct 31, 2025 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Villarreal 4–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2025 · replay 71% for Villarreal
- Atlético 3–0 Sevilla Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 3–2 Athletic Nov 1, 2025 · replay 65% for Real Sociedad
- Levante 1–2 Celta Nov 2, 2025 · replay 51% for Celta
- Alavés 2–1 Espanyol Nov 2, 2025 · replay 60% for Alavés
- Barcelona 3–1 Elche Nov 2, 2025 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Betis 3–0 Mallorca Nov 2, 2025 · replay 70% for Betis
- Oviedo 0–0 Osasuna Nov 3, 2025 · drawn; replay 32% draws