Matchday 11 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 2, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Barcelona 3–1 Elche: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Elche 3–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Barcelona win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Barcelona were expected to score 2.8 here and Elche 0.8.
What the goals say
Luck index +15 Barcelona about even · −15 Elche
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 8, 1 ends level, Elche win 1.
- 1 BAR 3 ELC 2
- 2 BAR 2 ELC 1
- 3 BAR 2 ELC 0
- 4 BAR 2 ELC 0
- 5 BAR 4 ELC 1
- 6 BAR 3 ELC 0
- 7 BAR 4 ELC 0
- 8 BAR 6 ELC 1
- 9 BAR 1 ELC 1
- 10 BAR 3 ELC 4
The goals
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | 1–0 | +22% Barcelona |
| 2. 11' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 2–0 | +12% Barcelona |
| 3. 42' | Rafa Mir (Elche) | 2–1 | +12% Elche |
| 4. 61' | Marcus Rashford (Barcelona) | 3–1 | +10% Barcelona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Getafe 2–1 Girona Oct 31, 2025 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Villarreal 4–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2025 · replay 71% for Villarreal
- Atlético 3–0 Sevilla Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 3–2 Athletic Nov 1, 2025 · replay 65% for Real Sociedad
- Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia Nov 1, 2025 · replay 80% for Real Madrid
- Levante 1–2 Celta Nov 2, 2025 · replay 51% for Celta
- Alavés 2–1 Espanyol Nov 2, 2025 · replay 60% for Alavés
- Betis 3–0 Mallorca Nov 2, 2025 · replay 70% for Betis
- Oviedo 0–0 Osasuna Nov 3, 2025 · drawn; replay 32% draws