Matchday 14 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Girona 1–1 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Girona and Real Madrid drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Girona win 2 of 10, Real Madrid 6, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Girona were expected to score 0.9 here and Real Madrid 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Girona | 1 |
 Real Madrid | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +19 Girona about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Girona win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 GIR 1 RMA 0
- 2 GIR 2 RMA 0
- 3 GIR 2 RMA 2
- 4 GIR 2 RMA 2
- 5 GIR 0 RMA 4
- 6 GIR 0 RMA 3
- 7 GIR 1 RMA 3
- 8 GIR 1 RMA 3
- 9 GIR 0 RMA 1
- 10 GIR 1 RMA 2
The goals
Girona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45' | Azzedine Ounahi (Girona) | 1–0 | +28% Girona |
| 2. 67' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid, penalty) | 1–1 | +36% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
- Getafe 1–0 Elche Nov 28, 2025 · replay 63% for Getafe
- Mallorca 2–2 Osasuna Nov 29, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Barcelona 3–1 Alavés Nov 29, 2025 · replay 86% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–2 Athletic Nov 29, 2025 · replay 41% for Athletic
- Atlético 2–0 Oviedo Nov 29, 2025 · replay 86% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Villarreal Nov 30, 2025 · replay 53% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 0–2 Betis Nov 30, 2025 · replay 55% for Betis
- Celta 0–1 Espanyol Nov 30, 2025 · replay 31% for Espanyol
- Rayo 1–1 Valencia Dec 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws