Matchday 14 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 2–3 Villarreal: lucky or expected?
Villarreal beat Real Sociedad 3–2, but the goals call it even: Villarreal win 4 of 10, Real Sociedad 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.7 here and Villarreal 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 |
 Villarreal | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +47 Villarreal lucky · −47 Real Sociedad
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 4, 2 end level, Villarreal win 4.
- 1 RSO 2 VIL 1
- 2 RSO 1 VIL 0
- 3 RSO 3 VIL 1
- 4 RSO 4 VIL 1
- 5 RSO 3 VIL 3
- 6 RSO 2 VIL 2
- 7 RSO 0 VIL 3
- 8 RSO 0 VIL 2
- 9 RSO 1 VIL 2
- 10 RSO 0 VIL 1
The goals
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 31' | Ayoze Perez (Villarreal) | 0–1 | +29% Villarreal |
| 2. 57' | Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal) | 0–2 | +15% Villarreal |
| 3. 60' | Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad) | 1–2 | +15% Real Sociedad |
| 4. 87' | Ander Barrenetxea Muguruza (Real Sociedad) | 2–2 | +48% Real Sociedad |
| 90+5' | Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal) | 2–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Villarreal win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2025-26 · 
Real Sociedad · 
Villarreal
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
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- Celta 0–1 Espanyol Nov 30, 2025 · replay 31% for Espanyol
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