Matchday 14 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 29, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Barcelona 3–1 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Alavés 3–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Barcelona win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Barcelona were expected to score 2.7 here and Alavés 0.7.
What the goals say
Luck index +14 Barcelona about even · −14 Alavés
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 8, 1 ends level, Alavés win 1.
- 1 BAR 2 ALA 1
- 2 BAR 3 ALA 2
- 3 BAR 3 ALA 1
- 4 BAR 4 ALA 2
- 5 BAR 3 ALA 0
- 6 BAR 3 ALA 0
- 7 BAR 4 ALA 0
- 8 BAR 6 ALA 0
- 9 BAR 0 ALA 0
- 10 BAR 1 ALA 2
The goals
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 1' | Pablo Ibáñez (Alavés) | 0–1 | +24% Alavés |
| 2. 8' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | 1–1 | +25% Barcelona |
| 3. 26' | Dani Olmo (Barcelona) | 2–1 | +25% Barcelona |
| 90+3' | Dani Olmo (Barcelona) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
- Getafe 1–0 Elche Nov 28, 2025 · replay 63% for Getafe
- Mallorca 2–2 Osasuna Nov 29, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Levante 0–2 Athletic Nov 29, 2025 · replay 41% for Athletic
- Atlético 2–0 Oviedo Nov 29, 2025 · replay 86% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Villarreal Nov 30, 2025 · replay 53% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 0–2 Betis Nov 30, 2025 · replay 55% for Betis
- Celta 0–1 Espanyol Nov 30, 2025 · replay 31% for Espanyol
- Girona 1–1 Real Madrid Nov 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Rayo 1–1 Valencia Dec 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws