Matchday 15 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 1–0 Atlético: lucky or expected?
Athletic beat Atlético 1–0, but the goals lean toward Atlético: 4 wins in 10 to Athletic’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.2 here and Atlético 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 |
 Atlético Madrid | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +59 Athletic lucky · −59 Atlético
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 3, 3 end level, Atlético win 4.
- 1 ATH 2 ATM 1
- 2 ATH 4 ATM 2
- 3 ATH 3 ATM 0
- 4 ATH 1 ATM 1
- 5 ATH 1 ATM 1
- 6 ATH 1 ATM 1
- 7 ATH 1 ATM 4
- 8 ATH 1 ATM 3
- 9 ATH 0 ATM 1
- 10 ATH 1 ATM 2
The goals
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 85' | Alex Berenguer (Athletic) | 1–0 | +46% Athletic |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Athletic win 41% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Oviedo 0–0 Mallorca Dec 5, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Dec 6, 2025 · replay 74% for Villarreal
- Alavés 1–0 Real Sociedad Dec 6, 2025 · replay 54% for Alavés
- Betis 3–5 Barcelona Dec 6, 2025 · replay 63% for Barcelona
- Elche 3–0 Girona Dec 7, 2025 · replay 62% for Elche
- Valencia 1–1 Sevilla Dec 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Dec 7, 2025 · replay 54% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–2 Celta Dec 7, 2025 · replay 24% for Celta
- Osasuna 2–0 Levante Dec 8, 2025 · replay 64% for Osasuna