Matchday 15 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 3–5 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Betis 5–3, and the goals lean Barcelona’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Betis, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.5 here and Barcelona 2.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 3 |
 Barcelona | 5 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Barcelona lucky · −37 Betis
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 3, 2 end level, Barcelona win 5.
- 1 BET 1 BAR 0
- 2 BET 2 BAR 0
- 3 BET 3 BAR 0
- 4 BET 1 BAR 1
- 5 BET 1 BAR 1
- 6 BET 2 BAR 6
- 7 BET 1 BAR 4
- 8 BET 0 BAR 2
- 9 BET 0 BAR 1
- 10 BET 2 BAR 3
The goals
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Antony (Betis) | 1–0 | +21% Betis |
| 2. 11' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 1–1 | +22% Barcelona |
| 3. 13' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 1–2 | +26% Barcelona |
| 4. 31' | Roony Bardghji (Barcelona) | 1–3 | +19% Barcelona |
| 5. 40' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 1–4 | +7% Barcelona |
| 6. 59' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, penalty) | 1–5 | +1% Barcelona |
| 7. 85' | Diego Llorente (Betis) | 2–5 | +0% Betis |
| 8. 90' | Cucho Hernandez (Betis, penalty) | 3–5 | +0% Betis |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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- Valencia 1–1 Sevilla Dec 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Dec 7, 2025 · replay 54% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–2 Celta Dec 7, 2025 · replay 24% for Celta
- Osasuna 2–0 Levante Dec 8, 2025 · replay 64% for Osasuna