Matchday 15 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 8, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 2–0 Levante: lucky or expected?
Osasuna beat Levante 2–0, and the goals lean Osasuna’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.6 here and Levante 1.0.
What the goals say
Luck index +36 Osasuna lucky · −36 Levante
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 5, 3 end level, Levante win 2.
- 1 OSA 2 LEV 1
- 2 OSA 2 LEV 1
- 3 OSA 2 LEV 0
- 4 OSA 2 LEV 0
- 5 OSA 4 LEV 1
- 6 OSA 0 LEV 0
- 7 OSA 0 LEV 0
- 8 OSA 0 LEV 0
- 9 OSA 2 LEV 4
- 10 OSA 1 LEV 2
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Victor Munoz (Osasuna) | 1–0 | +22% Osasuna |
| 2. 36' | Ruben (Osasuna) | 2–0 | +12% Osasuna |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Osasuna win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Oviedo 0–0 Mallorca Dec 5, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Dec 6, 2025 · replay 74% for Villarreal
- Alavés 1–0 Real Sociedad Dec 6, 2025 · replay 54% for Alavés
- Betis 3–5 Barcelona Dec 6, 2025 · replay 63% for Barcelona
- Athletic 1–0 Atlético Dec 6, 2025 · replay 41% for Athletic
- Elche 3–0 Girona Dec 7, 2025 · replay 62% for Elche
- Valencia 1–1 Sevilla Dec 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Dec 7, 2025 · replay 54% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–2 Celta Dec 7, 2025 · replay 24% for Celta