Matchday 16 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 14, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Alavés 1–2 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Alavés 2–1, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Alavés, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Alavés were expected to score 1.0 here and Real Madrid 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Alavés | 1 |
 Real Madrid | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +32 Real Madrid lucky · −32 Alavés
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Alavés win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 ALA 1 RMA 0
- 2 ALA 2 RMA 0
- 3 ALA 1 RMA 1
- 4 ALA 1 RMA 1
- 5 ALA 0 RMA 4
- 6 ALA 0 RMA 3
- 7 ALA 0 RMA 2
- 8 ALA 1 RMA 3
- 9 ALA 1 RMA 2
- 10 ALA 3 RMA 4
The goals
Alavés’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 0–1 | +28% Real Madrid |
| 2. 68' | Carlos Vicente (Alavés) | 1–1 | +39% Alavés |
| 3. 76' | Rodrygo (Real Madrid) | 1–2 | +43% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Girona Dec 12, 2025 · replay 35% for Girona
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2025 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Mallorca 3–1 Elche Dec 13, 2025 · replay 59% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 2–0 Osasuna Dec 13, 2025 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Getafe 0–1 Espanyol Dec 13, 2025 · replay 34% for Espanyol
- Sevilla 4–0 Oviedo Dec 14, 2025 · replay 70% for Sevilla
- Celta 2–0 Athletic Dec 14, 2025 · replay 69% for Celta
- Rayo 0–0 Betis Dec 15, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Levante 0–1 Villarreal Feb 18, 2026 · replay 59% for Villarreal