Matchday 16 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 14, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 2–0 Athletic: lucky or expected?
Celta beat Athletic 2–0, and the goals lean Celta’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Athletic, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.8 here and Athletic 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 2 |
 Athletic Club | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +31 Celta lucky · −31 Athletic
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 6, 3 end level, Athletic win 1.
- 1 CEL 2 ATH 1
- 2 CEL 1 ATH 0
- 3 CEL 1 ATH 0
- 4 CEL 2 ATH 0
- 5 CEL 3 ATH 1
- 6 CEL 4 ATH 0
- 7 CEL 1 ATH 1
- 8 CEL 1 ATH 1
- 9 CEL 1 ATH 1
- 10 CEL 1 ATH 2
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 48' | Williot Swedberg (Celta) | 1–0 | +29% Celta |
| 2. 55' | Jones El Abdellaoui (Celta) | 2–0 | +10% Celta |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Celta win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Girona Dec 12, 2025 · replay 35% for Girona
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2025 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Mallorca 3–1 Elche Dec 13, 2025 · replay 59% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 2–0 Osasuna Dec 13, 2025 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Getafe 0–1 Espanyol Dec 13, 2025 · replay 34% for Espanyol
- Sevilla 4–0 Oviedo Dec 14, 2025 · replay 70% for Sevilla
- Alavés 1–2 Real Madrid Dec 14, 2025 · replay 68% for Real Madrid
- Rayo 0–0 Betis Dec 15, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Levante 0–1 Villarreal Feb 18, 2026 · replay 59% for Villarreal