Matchday 16 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 2–1 Valencia: lucky or expected?
Atlético beat Valencia 2–1, and the goals lean Atlético’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Valencia, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 1.9 here and Valencia 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 2 |
 Valencia | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +28 Atlético lucky · −28 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 6, 2 end level, Valencia win 2.
- 1 ATM 1 VAL 0
- 2 ATM 2 VAL 1
- 3 ATM 2 VAL 0
- 4 ATM 2 VAL 0
- 5 ATM 4 VAL 1
- 6 ATM 4 VAL 0
- 7 ATM 1 VAL 1
- 8 ATM 1 VAL 1
- 9 ATM 0 VAL 2
- 10 ATM 2 VAL 3
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 17' | Koke (Atlético) | 1–0 | +23% Atlético |
| 2. 63' | Lucas Beltran (Valencia) | 1–1 | +34% Valencia |
| 3. 74' | Antoine Griezmann (Atlético) | 2–1 | +39% Atlético |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Girona Dec 12, 2025 · replay 35% for Girona
- Mallorca 3–1 Elche Dec 13, 2025 · replay 59% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 2–0 Osasuna Dec 13, 2025 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Getafe 0–1 Espanyol Dec 13, 2025 · replay 34% for Espanyol
- Sevilla 4–0 Oviedo Dec 14, 2025 · replay 70% for Sevilla
- Celta 2–0 Athletic Dec 14, 2025 · replay 69% for Celta
- Alavés 1–2 Real Madrid Dec 14, 2025 · replay 68% for Real Madrid
- Rayo 0–0 Betis Dec 15, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Levante 0–1 Villarreal Feb 18, 2026 · replay 59% for Villarreal