Matchday 23 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 8, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Alavés 0–2 Getafe: lucky or expected?
Getafe beat Alavés 2–0, but the goals lean toward Alavés: 4 wins in 10 to Getafe’s 2, 4 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Alavés were expected to score 1.0 here and Getafe 0.8.
What the goals say
Luck index +57 Getafe lucky · −57 Alavés
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Alavés win 4, 4 end level, Getafe win 2.
- 1 ALA 2 GET 1
- 2 ALA 2 GET 1
- 3 ALA 1 GET 0
- 4 ALA 2 GET 0
- 5 ALA 2 GET 2
- 6 ALA 0 GET 0
- 7 ALA 0 GET 0
- 8 ALA 2 GET 2
- 9 ALA 1 GET 2
- 10 ALA 0 GET 1
The goals
Alavés’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 53' | Luis Vázquez (Getafe) | 0–1 | +34% Getafe |
| 2. 72' | Mauro Arambarri (Getafe, penalty) | 0–2 | +11% Getafe |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Getafe win 43% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- Celta 1–2 Osasuna Feb 6, 2026 · replay 34% for Osasuna
- Barcelona 3–0 Mallorca Feb 7, 2026 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Elche Feb 7, 2026 · replay 62% for Real Sociedad
- Sevilla 1–1 Girona Feb 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Athletic 4–2 Levante Feb 8, 2026 · replay 59% for Athletic
- Atlético 0–1 Betis Feb 8, 2026 · replay 37% for Betis
- Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid Feb 8, 2026 · replay 65% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol Feb 9, 2026 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Rayo 3–0 Oviedo Mar 4, 2026 · replay 80% for Rayo