Matchday 23 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 8, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Sevilla 1–1 Girona: lucky or expected?
Sevilla and Girona drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Sevilla win 4 of 10, Girona 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Sevilla were expected to score 1.5 here and Girona 1.1.
What the goals say
Luck index −8 Sevilla about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 4, 3 end level, Girona win 3.
- 1 SEV 1 GIR 0
- 2 SEV 1 GIR 0
- 3 SEV 2 GIR 0
- 4 SEV 3 GIR 0
- 5 SEV 1 GIR 1
- 6 SEV 2 GIR 2
- 7 SEV 0 GIR 0
- 8 SEV 0 GIR 2
- 9 SEV 1 GIR 2
- 10 SEV 0 GIR 1
The goals
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 2' | Thomas Lemar (Girona) | 0–1 | +24% Girona |
| 90+2' | Kike Salas (Sevilla) | 1–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- Celta 1–2 Osasuna Feb 6, 2026 · replay 34% for Osasuna
- Barcelona 3–0 Mallorca Feb 7, 2026 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Elche Feb 7, 2026 · replay 62% for Real Sociedad
- Alavés 0–2 Getafe Feb 8, 2026 · replay 43% for Getafe
- Athletic 4–2 Levante Feb 8, 2026 · replay 59% for Athletic
- Atlético 0–1 Betis Feb 8, 2026 · replay 37% for Betis
- Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid Feb 8, 2026 · replay 65% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol Feb 9, 2026 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Rayo 3–0 Oviedo Mar 4, 2026 · replay 80% for Rayo