Matchday 23 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 8, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 0–1 Betis: lucky or expected?
Betis beat Atlético 1–0, but the goals lean toward Atlético: 5 wins in 10 to Betis’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 1.8 here and Betis 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 0 |
 Real Betis | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +63 Betis very lucky · −63 Atlético
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 5, 3 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 ATM 2 BET 1
- 2 ATM 2 BET 1
- 3 ATM 2 BET 0
- 4 ATM 3 BET 1
- 5 ATM 4 BET 0
- 6 ATM 0 BET 0
- 7 ATM 0 BET 0
- 8 ATM 1 BET 1
- 9 ATM 0 BET 2
- 10 ATM 0 BET 1
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 28' | Antony (Betis) | 0–1 | +28% Betis |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Betis win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- Celta 1–2 Osasuna Feb 6, 2026 · replay 34% for Osasuna
- Barcelona 3–0 Mallorca Feb 7, 2026 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Elche Feb 7, 2026 · replay 62% for Real Sociedad
- Alavés 0–2 Getafe Feb 8, 2026 · replay 43% for Getafe
- Sevilla 1–1 Girona Feb 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Athletic 4–2 Levante Feb 8, 2026 · replay 59% for Athletic
- Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid Feb 8, 2026 · replay 65% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol Feb 9, 2026 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Rayo 3–0 Oviedo Mar 4, 2026 · replay 80% for Rayo