Matchday 24 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Oviedo 1–2 Athletic: lucky or expected?
Athletic beat Oviedo 2–1, but the goals call it even: Athletic win 4 of 10, Oviedo 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Oviedo were expected to score 1.1 here and Athletic 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Oviedo | 1 |
 Athletic Club | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 Athletic lucky · −49 Oviedo
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Oviedo win 3, 3 end level, Athletic win 4.
- 1 OVI 2 ATH 1
- 2 OVI 1 ATH 0
- 3 OVI 2 ATH 0
- 4 OVI 1 ATH 1
- 5 OVI 1 ATH 1
- 6 OVI 1 ATH 1
- 7 OVI 0 ATH 2
- 8 OVI 0 ATH 2
- 9 OVI 1 ATH 2
- 10 OVI 2 ATH 3
The goals
Oviedo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 30' | Ilyas Chaira (Oviedo) | 1–0 | +25% Oviedo |
| 2. 58' | Mikel Jauregizar (Athletic) | 1–1 | +32% Athletic |
| 3. 71' | Oihan Sancet (Athletic, penalty) | 1–2 | +40% Athletic |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Athletic win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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