Matchday 24 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 16, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Girona 2–1 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Girona beat Barcelona 2–1, but the goals lean toward Barcelona: 6 wins in 10 to Girona’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Girona were expected to score 1.0 here and Barcelona 2.2.
What the goals say
Luck index +74 Girona very lucky · −74 Barcelona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Girona win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 GIR 3 BAR 2
- 2 GIR 2 BAR 0
- 3 GIR 1 BAR 1
- 4 GIR 2 BAR 2
- 5 GIR 0 BAR 4
- 6 GIR 0 BAR 3
- 7 GIR 0 BAR 2
- 8 GIR 0 BAR 2
- 9 GIR 2 BAR 3
- 10 GIR 0 BAR 1
The goals
Girona’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 59' | Pau Cubarsi (Barcelona) | 0–1 | +36% Barcelona |
| 2. 61' | Thomas Lemar (Girona) | 1–1 | +37% Girona |
| 3. 86' | Francisco José Beltrán Peinado (Girona) | 2–1 | +47% Girona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Girona win 26% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2025-26
- Elche 0–0 Osasuna Feb 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Espanyol 2–2 Celta Feb 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Getafe 2–1 Villarreal Feb 14, 2026 · replay 45% for Getafe
- Sevilla 1–1 Alavés Feb 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad Feb 14, 2026 · replay 77% for Real Madrid
- Oviedo 1–2 Athletic Feb 15, 2026 · replay 51% for Athletic
- Rayo 3–0 Atlético Feb 15, 2026 · replay 48% for Rayo
- Levante 0–2 Valencia Feb 15, 2026 · replay 46% for Valencia
- Mallorca 1–2 Betis Feb 15, 2026 · replay 52% for Betis