Matchday 24 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.4 here and Real Sociedad 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 4 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +23 Real Madrid about even · −23 Real Sociedad
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Real Sociedad win 1.
- 1 RMA 2 RSO 1
- 2 RMA 1 RSO 0
- 3 RMA 2 RSO 0
- 4 RMA 2 RSO 0
- 5 RMA 3 RSO 0
- 6 RMA 5 RSO 1
- 7 RMA 5 RSO 0
- 8 RMA 1 RSO 1
- 9 RMA 0 RSO 0
- 10 RMA 0 RSO 1
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | Gonzalo Garcia (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +21% Real Madrid |
| 2. 21' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad, penalty) | 1–1 | +24% Real Sociedad |
| 3. 25' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid, penalty) | 2–1 | +24% Real Madrid |
| 4. 31' | Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) | 3–1 | +12% Real Madrid |
| 5. 48' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid, penalty) | 4–1 | +3% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 24 matches, 2025-26 · 
Real Madrid · 
Real Sociedad
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