Matchday 29 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 22, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 3–4 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Alavés beat Celta 4–3, but the goals lean toward Celta: 6 wins in 10 to Alavés’s 1, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.7 here and Alavés 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 3 |
 Alavés | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index +69 Alavés very lucky · −69 Celta
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 6, 3 end level, Alavés win 1.
- 1 CEL 3 ALA 2
- 2 CEL 3 ALA 2
- 3 CEL 2 ALA 0
- 4 CEL 2 ALA 0
- 5 CEL 2 ALA 0
- 6 CEL 3 ALA 0
- 7 CEL 2 ALA 2
- 8 CEL 0 ALA 0
- 9 CEL 2 ALA 2
- 10 CEL 0 ALA 1
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 19' | Ferran Jutglà (Celta) | 1–0 | +23% Celta |
| 2. 27' | Hugo Álvarez (Celta) | 2–0 | +12% Celta |
| 3. 37' | Ferran Jutglà (Celta) | 3–0 | +3% Celta |
| 4. 45+3' | Toni Martinez (Alavés) | 3–1 | +3% Alavés |
| 5. 50' | Ángel Pérez (Alavés) | 3–2 | +11% Alavés |
| 6. 74' | Toni Martinez (Alavés) | 3–3 | +39% Alavés |
| 7. 78' | Abde Rebbach (Alavés) | 3–4 | +44% Alavés |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Alavés win 31% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Villarreal 3–1 Real Sociedad Mar 20, 2026 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Elche 2–1 Mallorca Mar 21, 2026 · replay 60% for Elche
- Espanyol 1–2 Getafe Mar 21, 2026 · replay 43% for Getafe
- Levante 4–2 Oviedo Mar 21, 2026 · replay 70% for Levante
- Osasuna 1–0 Girona Mar 21, 2026 · replay 64% for Osasuna
- Sevilla 0–2 Valencia Mar 21, 2026 · replay 46% for Valencia
- Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Mar 22, 2026 · replay 84% for Barcelona
- Athletic 2–1 Betis Mar 22, 2026 · replay 46% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético Mar 22, 2026 · replay 69% for Real Madrid