Matchday 29 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 22, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Atlético 3–2, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Atlético, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.0 here and Atlético 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 |
 Atlético Madrid | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +31 Real Madrid lucky · −31 Atlético
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 6, 2 end level, Atlético win 2.
- 1 RMA 2 ATM 1
- 2 RMA 2 ATM 1
- 3 RMA 2 ATM 0
- 4 RMA 2 ATM 0
- 5 RMA 3 ATM 0
- 6 RMA 5 ATM 1
- 7 RMA 0 ATM 0
- 8 RMA 1 ATM 1
- 9 RMA 1 ATM 3
- 10 RMA 0 ATM 1
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 33' | Ademola Lookman (Atlético) | 0–1 | +29% Atlético |
| 2. 52' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid, penalty) | 1–1 | +34% Real Madrid |
| 3. 55' | Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) | 2–1 | +31% Real Madrid |
| 4. 66' | Nahuel Molina (Atlético) | 2–2 | +35% Atlético |
| 5. 72' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | 3–2 | +38% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Villarreal 3–1 Real Sociedad Mar 20, 2026 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Elche 2–1 Mallorca Mar 21, 2026 · replay 60% for Elche
- Espanyol 1–2 Getafe Mar 21, 2026 · replay 43% for Getafe
- Levante 4–2 Oviedo Mar 21, 2026 · replay 70% for Levante
- Osasuna 1–0 Girona Mar 21, 2026 · replay 64% for Osasuna
- Sevilla 0–2 Valencia Mar 21, 2026 · replay 46% for Valencia
- Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Mar 22, 2026 · replay 84% for Barcelona
- Celta 3–4 Alavés Mar 22, 2026 · replay 31% for Alavés
- Athletic 2–1 Betis Mar 22, 2026 · replay 46% for Athletic