Matchday 29 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 20, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Villarreal 3–1 Real Sociedad: lucky or expected?
Villarreal beat Real Sociedad 3–1, and the goals lean Villarreal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Real Sociedad, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Villarreal were expected to score 2.3 here and Real Sociedad 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Villarreal | 3 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +31 Villarreal lucky · −31 Real Sociedad
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 6, 2 end level, Real Sociedad win 2.
- 1 VIL 1 RSO 0
- 2 VIL 3 RSO 2
- 3 VIL 4 RSO 2
- 4 VIL 3 RSO 1
- 5 VIL 3 RSO 0
- 6 VIL 5 RSO 1
- 7 VIL 1 RSO 1
- 8 VIL 1 RSO 1
- 9 VIL 1 RSO 3
- 10 VIL 0 RSO 1
The goals
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Gerard Moreno (Villarreal) | 1–0 | +22% Villarreal |
| 2. 15' | Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) | 2–0 | +12% Villarreal |
| 3. 23' | Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal) | 3–0 | +4% Villarreal |
| 4. 47' | Luka Sucic (Real Sociedad) | 3–1 | +3% Real Sociedad |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Villarreal win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2025-26 · 
Villarreal · 
Real Sociedad
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- Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético Mar 22, 2026 · replay 69% for Real Madrid