luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 30 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 4, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Betis 0–0 Espanyol: lucky or expected?

Betis and Espanyol drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Betis win 6 of 10, Espanyol 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.8 here and Espanyol 0.9.

Full time

Goals
Real Betis 0
Espanyol 0

April 4, 2026

Luck index −21 Betis about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Betis win 6, 2 end level, Espanyol win 2.

  1. 1 BET 1 ESP 0
  2. 2 BET 1 ESP 0
  3. 3 BET 2 ESP 0
  4. 4 BET 4 ESP 2
  5. 5 BET 3 ESP 0
  6. 6 BET 4 ESP 0
  7. 7 BET 0 ESP 0
  8. 8 BET 1 ESP 1
  9. 9 BET 0 ESP 2
  10. 10 BET 0 ESP 1

The goals

No goals: Betis and Espanyol drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (71% for Betis, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

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