Matchday 30 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 1–2 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Atlético 2–1, and the goals lean Barcelona’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Atlético, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 1.6 here and Barcelona 2.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 |
 Barcelona | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +41 Barcelona lucky · −41 Atlético
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 3, 2 end level, Barcelona win 5.
- 1 ATM 2 BAR 1
- 2 ATM 2 BAR 1
- 3 ATM 3 BAR 0
- 4 ATM 1 BAR 1
- 5 ATM 3 BAR 3
- 6 ATM 0 BAR 4
- 7 ATM 1 BAR 3
- 8 ATM 2 BAR 4
- 9 ATM 1 BAR 2
- 10 ATM 0 BAR 1
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 39' | Giuliano Simeone (Atlético) | 1–0 | +27% Atlético |
| 2. 42' | Marcus Rashford (Barcelona) | 1–1 | +28% Barcelona |
| 3. 87' | Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) | 1–2 | +48% Barcelona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2025-26
- Rayo 1–0 Elche Apr 3, 2026 · replay 64% for Rayo
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Levante Apr 4, 2026 · replay 64% for Real Sociedad
- Mallorca 2–1 Real Madrid Apr 4, 2026 · replay 33% for Mallorca
- Betis 0–0 Espanyol Apr 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Getafe 2–0 Athletic Apr 5, 2026 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Valencia 2–3 Celta Apr 5, 2026 · replay 46% for Celta
- Oviedo 1–0 Sevilla Apr 5, 2026 · replay 50% for Oviedo
- Alavés 2–2 Osasuna Apr 5, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Girona 1–0 Villarreal Apr 6, 2026 · replay 41% for Girona