Matchday 30 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 5, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Valencia 2–3 Celta: lucky or expected?
Celta beat Valencia 3–2, but the goals call it even: Celta win 3 of 10, Valencia 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Valencia were expected to score 1.4 here and Celta 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Valencia | 2 |
 Celta Vigo | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +54 Celta lucky · −54 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 4, 3 end level, Celta win 3.
- 1 VAL 1 CEL 0
- 2 VAL 2 CEL 1
- 3 VAL 2 CEL 0
- 4 VAL 4 CEL 1
- 5 VAL 0 CEL 0
- 6 VAL 0 CEL 0
- 7 VAL 0 CEL 0
- 8 VAL 1 CEL 3
- 9 VAL 0 CEL 1
- 10 VAL 2 CEL 3
The goals
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 12' | Guido Rodriguez (Valencia) | 1–0 | +22% Valencia |
| 2. 56' | Ilaix Moriba (Celta) | 1–1 | +32% Celta |
| 3. 60' | Fer López (Celta) | 1–2 | +36% Celta |
| 4. 81' | Williot Swedberg (Celta) | 1–3 | +7% Celta |
| 90+3' | Guido Rodriguez (Valencia) | 2–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Celta win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2025-26
- Rayo 1–0 Elche Apr 3, 2026 · replay 64% for Rayo
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Levante Apr 4, 2026 · replay 64% for Real Sociedad
- Mallorca 2–1 Real Madrid Apr 4, 2026 · replay 33% for Mallorca
- Betis 0–0 Espanyol Apr 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Atlético 1–2 Barcelona Apr 4, 2026 · replay 59% for Barcelona
- Getafe 2–0 Athletic Apr 5, 2026 · replay 67% for Getafe
- Oviedo 1–0 Sevilla Apr 5, 2026 · replay 50% for Oviedo
- Alavés 2–2 Osasuna Apr 5, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Girona 1–0 Villarreal Apr 6, 2026 · replay 41% for Girona