Matchday 31 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 1–1 Girona: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid and Girona drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 8 of 10, Girona 0, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.2 here and Girona 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 1 |
 Girona | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −34 Real Madrid unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 8, 2 end level, Girona win 0.
- 1 RMA 2 GIR 1
- 2 RMA 1 GIR 0
- 3 RMA 2 GIR 0
- 4 RMA 2 GIR 0
- 5 RMA 3 GIR 1
- 6 RMA 3 GIR 0
- 7 RMA 5 GIR 1
- 8 RMA 5 GIR 0
- 9 RMA 2 GIR 2
- 10 RMA 1 GIR 1
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 51' | Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +30% Real Madrid |
| 2. 62' | Thomas Lemar (Girona) | 1–1 | +34% Girona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
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- Barcelona 4–1 Espanyol Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 2–1 Atlético Apr 11, 2026 · replay 41% for Sevilla
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- Mallorca 3–0 Rayo Apr 12, 2026 · replay 55% for Mallorca
- Celta 0–3 Oviedo Apr 12, 2026 · replay 20% for Oviedo
- Athletic 1–2 Villarreal Apr 12, 2026 · replay 59% for Villarreal
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