Matchday 31 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 0–3 Oviedo: lucky or expected?
Oviedo beat Celta 3–0, a result the goals rarely give: Celta win 7 of 10, Oviedo only 1, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.8 here and Oviedo 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 0 |
 Real Oviedo | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +80 Oviedo very lucky · −80 Celta
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 7, 2 end level, Oviedo win 1.
- 1 CEL 2 OVI 1
- 2 CEL 2 OVI 1
- 3 CEL 1 OVI 0
- 4 CEL 2 OVI 0
- 5 CEL 2 OVI 0
- 6 CEL 3 OVI 0
- 7 CEL 4 OVI 0
- 8 CEL 0 OVI 0
- 9 CEL 1 OVI 1
- 10 CEL 0 OVI 1
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Alberto Reina (Oviedo) | 0–1 | +25% Oviedo |
| 2. 45' | Federico Vinas (Oviedo) | 0–2 | +17% Oviedo |
| 3. 57' | Federico Vinas (Oviedo) | 0–3 | +4% Oviedo |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Oviedo win 20% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
- Real Madrid 1–1 Girona Apr 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Real Sociedad 3–3 Alavés Apr 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Elche 1–0 Valencia Apr 11, 2026 · replay 57% for Elche
- Barcelona 4–1 Espanyol Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 2–1 Atlético Apr 11, 2026 · replay 41% for Sevilla
- Osasuna 1–1 Betis Apr 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Mallorca 3–0 Rayo Apr 12, 2026 · replay 55% for Mallorca
- Athletic 1–2 Villarreal Apr 12, 2026 · replay 59% for Villarreal
- Levante 1–0 Getafe Apr 13, 2026 · replay 55% for Levante