Matchday 31 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 1–1 Betis: lucky or expected?
Osasuna and Betis drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Osasuna win 4 of 10, Betis 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.3 here and Betis 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Osasuna | 1 |
 Real Betis | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index 0 Osasuna about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 4, 3 end level, Betis win 3.
- 1 OSA 1 BET 0
- 2 OSA 2 BET 1
- 3 OSA 2 BET 0
- 4 OSA 4 BET 1
- 5 OSA 0 BET 0
- 6 OSA 0 BET 0
- 7 OSA 1 BET 1
- 8 OSA 0 BET 3
- 9 OSA 0 BET 1
- 10 OSA 1 BET 2
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Abde Ezzalzouli (Betis) | 0–1 | +25% Betis |
| 2. 40' | Ante Budimir (Osasuna, penalty) | 1–1 | +31% Osasuna |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
- Real Madrid 1–1 Girona Apr 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Real Sociedad 3–3 Alavés Apr 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Elche 1–0 Valencia Apr 11, 2026 · replay 57% for Elche
- Barcelona 4–1 Espanyol Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 2–1 Atlético Apr 11, 2026 · replay 41% for Sevilla
- Mallorca 3–0 Rayo Apr 12, 2026 · replay 55% for Mallorca
- Celta 0–3 Oviedo Apr 12, 2026 · replay 20% for Oviedo
- Athletic 1–2 Villarreal Apr 12, 2026 · replay 59% for Villarreal
- Levante 1–0 Getafe Apr 13, 2026 · replay 55% for Levante