luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 2 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 22, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

West Ham 1–5 Chelsea: lucky or expected?

Chelsea beat West Ham 5–1, and the goals lean Chelsea’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for West Ham, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.4 here and Chelsea 1.7.

Full time

Goals
West Ham United 1
Chelsea 5

August 22, 2025

Luck index +44 Chelsea lucky · −44 West Ham

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. West Ham win 3, 3 end level, Chelsea win 4.

  1. 1 WHU 2 CHE 1
  2. 2 WHU 2 CHE 1
  3. 3 WHU 3 CHE 0
  4. 4 WHU 1 CHE 1
  5. 5 WHU 1 CHE 1
  6. 6 WHU 2 CHE 2
  7. 7 WHU 0 CHE 3
  8. 8 WHU 1 CHE 3
  9. 9 WHU 1 CHE 2
  10. 10 WHU 2 CHE 3

The goals

West Ham’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while West Ham was ahead in it, below while Chelsea was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 6' Lucas Paqueta (West Ham) 1–0 +22% West Ham
2. 15' Joao Pedro (Chelsea) 1–1 +23% Chelsea
3. 23' Pedro Neto (Chelsea) 1–2 +27% Chelsea
4. 34' Enzo Fernandez (Chelsea) 1–3 +17% Chelsea
5. 54' Moises Caicedo (Chelsea) 1–4 +4% Chelsea
6. 58' Trevoh Chalobah (Chelsea) 1–5 +1% Chelsea

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Chelsea win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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