Matchday 8 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 18, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Sunderland 2–0 Wolves: lucky or expected?
Sunderland beat Wolves 2–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Sunderland win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Sunderland were expected to score 1.6 here and Wolves 0.5. An own goal helped Sunderland.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Sunderland | 2 |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +23 Sunderland about even · −23 Wolves
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 6, 3 end level, Wolves win 1.
- 1 SUN 1 WOL 0
- 2 SUN 1 WOL 0
- 3 SUN 1 WOL 0
- 4 SUN 2 WOL 0
- 5 SUN 2 WOL 0
- 6 SUN 4 WOL 1
- 7 SUN 0 WOL 0
- 8 SUN 0 WOL 0
- 9 SUN 0 WOL 0
- 10 SUN 0 WOL 1
The goals
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 16' | Nordi Mukiele (Sunderland) | 1–0 | +24% Sunderland |
| 90+2' | Ladislav Krejci (Sunderland, own goal) | 2–0 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Sunderland win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2025-26
- Forest 0–3 Chelsea Oct 18, 2025 · replay 49% for Chelsea
- Brighton 2–1 Newcastle Oct 18, 2025 · replay 61% for Brighton
- Man City 2–0 Everton Oct 18, 2025 · replay 78% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 3–3 Bournemouth Oct 18, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Burnley 2–0 Leeds Oct 18, 2025 · replay 40% for Burnley
- Fulham 0–1 Arsenal Oct 18, 2025 · replay 68% for Arsenal
- Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa Oct 19, 2025 · replay 51% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 1–2 Man United Oct 19, 2025 · replay 48% for Man United
- West Ham 0–2 Brentford Oct 20, 2025 · replay 55% for Brentford