Matchday 8 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 19, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat Tottenham 2–1, but the goals call it even: Aston Villa win 4 of 10, Tottenham 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Tottenham were expected to score 1.4 here and Aston Villa 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 |
 Aston Villa | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 Aston Villa lucky · −49 Tottenham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 3, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 4.
- 1 TOT 1 AVL 0
- 2 TOT 1 AVL 0
- 3 TOT 3 AVL 0
- 4 TOT 0 AVL 0
- 5 TOT 3 AVL 3
- 6 TOT 2 AVL 2
- 7 TOT 0 AVL 3
- 8 TOT 0 AVL 2
- 9 TOT 1 AVL 2
- 10 TOT 0 AVL 1
The goals
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | Rodrigo Bentancur (Tottenham) | 1–0 | +22% Tottenham |
| 2. 37' | Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) | 1–1 | +27% Aston Villa |
| 3. 77' | Emiliano Buendia (Aston Villa) | 1–2 | +43% Aston Villa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2025-26
- Forest 0–3 Chelsea Oct 18, 2025 · replay 49% for Chelsea
- Sunderland 2–0 Wolves Oct 18, 2025 · replay 77% for Sunderland
- Brighton 2–1 Newcastle Oct 18, 2025 · replay 61% for Brighton
- Man City 2–0 Everton Oct 18, 2025 · replay 78% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 3–3 Bournemouth Oct 18, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Burnley 2–0 Leeds Oct 18, 2025 · replay 40% for Burnley
- Fulham 0–1 Arsenal Oct 18, 2025 · replay 68% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–2 Man United Oct 19, 2025 · replay 48% for Man United
- West Ham 0–2 Brentford Oct 20, 2025 · replay 55% for Brentford