Matchday 11 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 9, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Forest 3–1 Leeds: lucky or expected?
Forest beat Leeds 3–1, and the goals lean Forest’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Leeds, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.4 here and Leeds 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 3 |
 Leeds United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +44 Forest lucky · −44 Leeds
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Forest win 4, 3 end level, Leeds win 3.
- 1 NFO 3 LEE 2
- 2 NFO 1 LEE 0
- 3 NFO 4 LEE 2
- 4 NFO 2 LEE 0
- 5 NFO 2 LEE 2
- 6 NFO 2 LEE 2
- 7 NFO 1 LEE 1
- 8 NFO 0 LEE 2
- 9 NFO 1 LEE 2
- 10 NFO 1 LEE 2
The goals
Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Lukas Nmecha (Leeds) | 0–1 | +25% Leeds |
| 2. 15' | Ibrahim Sangare (Forest) | 1–1 | +26% Forest |
| 3. 68' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 2–1 | +37% Forest |
| 90+1' | Elliot Anderson (Forest, penalty) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Forest win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Tottenham 2–2 Man United Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Everton 2–0 Fulham Nov 8, 2025 · replay 58% for Everton
- West Ham 3–2 Burnley Nov 8, 2025 · replay 65% for West Ham
- Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Chelsea 3–0 Wolves Nov 8, 2025 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth Nov 9, 2025 · replay 57% for Aston Villa
- Brentford 3–1 Newcastle Nov 9, 2025 · replay 59% for Brentford
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Brighton Nov 9, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Man City 3–0 Liverpool Nov 9, 2025 · replay 71% for Man City