Matchday 11 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 8, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal: lucky or expected?
Sunderland and Arsenal drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Sunderland win 2 of 10, Arsenal 5, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Sunderland were expected to score 0.7 here and Arsenal 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Sunderland | 2 |
 Arsenal | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +19 Sunderland about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 SUN 1 ARS 0
- 2 SUN 2 ARS 0
- 3 SUN 0 ARS 0
- 4 SUN 1 ARS 1
- 5 SUN 2 ARS 2
- 6 SUN 0 ARS 4
- 7 SUN 1 ARS 3
- 8 SUN 0 ARS 2
- 9 SUN 0 ARS 1
- 10 SUN 0 ARS 1
The goals
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 36' | Daniel Ballard (Sunderland) | 1–0 | +27% Sunderland |
| 2. 54' | Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) | 1–1 | +31% Arsenal |
| 3. 74' | Leandro Trossard (Arsenal) | 1–2 | +41% Arsenal |
| 90+4' | Brian Brobbey (Sunderland) | 2–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Tottenham 2–2 Man United Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Everton 2–0 Fulham Nov 8, 2025 · replay 58% for Everton
- West Ham 3–2 Burnley Nov 8, 2025 · replay 65% for West Ham
- Chelsea 3–0 Wolves Nov 8, 2025 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Forest 3–1 Leeds Nov 9, 2025 · replay 56% for Forest
- Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth Nov 9, 2025 · replay 57% for Aston Villa
- Brentford 3–1 Newcastle Nov 9, 2025 · replay 59% for Brentford
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Brighton Nov 9, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Man City 3–0 Liverpool Nov 9, 2025 · replay 71% for Man City