Matchday 11 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 9, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 4–0, and the goals lean Aston Villa’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Bournemouth, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 1.6 here and Bournemouth 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 4 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Aston Villa lucky · −43 Bournemouth
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 4, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 3.
- 1 AVL 1 BOU 0
- 2 AVL 3 BOU 2
- 3 AVL 2 BOU 0
- 4 AVL 4 BOU 1
- 5 AVL 1 BOU 1
- 6 AVL 2 BOU 2
- 7 AVL 2 BOU 2
- 8 AVL 0 BOU 3
- 9 AVL 0 BOU 1
- 10 AVL 0 BOU 1
The goals
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 28' | Emiliano Buendia (Aston Villa) | 1–0 | +25% Aston Villa |
| 2. 40' | Amadou Onana (Aston Villa) | 2–0 | +13% Aston Villa |
| 3. 77' | Ross Barkley (Aston Villa) | 3–0 | +1% Aston Villa |
| 4. 82' | Donyell Malen (Aston Villa) | 4–0 | +0% Aston Villa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2025-26 · 
Aston Villa · 
Bournemouth
More from matchday 11, 2025-26
- Tottenham 2–2 Man United Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Everton 2–0 Fulham Nov 8, 2025 · replay 58% for Everton
- West Ham 3–2 Burnley Nov 8, 2025 · replay 65% for West Ham
- Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Chelsea 3–0 Wolves Nov 8, 2025 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Forest 3–1 Leeds Nov 9, 2025 · replay 56% for Forest
- Brentford 3–1 Newcastle Nov 9, 2025 · replay 59% for Brentford
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Brighton Nov 9, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Man City 3–0 Liverpool Nov 9, 2025 · replay 71% for Man City