Matchday 14 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 3, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolves 0–1 Forest: lucky or expected?
Forest beat Wolves 1–0, and the goals lean Forest’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Wolves, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolves were expected to score 0.9 here and Forest 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 |
 Nottingham Forest | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +38 Forest lucky · −38 Wolves
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolves win 2, 3 end level, Forest win 5.
- 1 WOL 1 NFO 0
- 2 WOL 4 NFO 2
- 3 WOL 1 NFO 1
- 4 WOL 1 NFO 1
- 5 WOL 2 NFO 2
- 6 WOL 0 NFO 3
- 7 WOL 0 NFO 2
- 8 WOL 0 NFO 1
- 9 WOL 0 NFO 1
- 10 WOL 1 NFO 2
The goals
Wolves’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 72' | Igor Jesus (Forest) | 0–1 | +40% Forest |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Forest win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
- Bournemouth 0–1 Everton Dec 2, 2025 · replay 39% for Everton
- Fulham 4–5 Man City Dec 2, 2025 · replay 67% for Man City
- Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham Dec 2, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Arsenal 2–0 Brentford Dec 3, 2025 · replay 76% for Arsenal
- Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa Dec 3, 2025 · replay 43% for Aston Villa
- Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace Dec 3, 2025 · replay 57% for Crystal Palace
- Leeds 3–1 Chelsea Dec 3, 2025 · replay 52% for Leeds
- Liverpool 1–1 Sunderland Dec 3, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Man United 1–1 West Ham Dec 4, 2025 · drawn; replay 20% draws