Matchday 14 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 3, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Liverpool 1–1 Sunderland: lucky or expected?
Liverpool and Sunderland drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Liverpool win 5 of 10, Sunderland 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Liverpool were expected to score 1.7 here and Sunderland 1.0. An own goal helped Liverpool.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 |
 Sunderland | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −14 Liverpool about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 5, 3 end level, Sunderland win 2.
- 1 LIV 1 SUN 0
- 2 LIV 1 SUN 0
- 3 LIV 3 SUN 1
- 4 LIV 5 SUN 3
- 5 LIV 5 SUN 1
- 6 LIV 2 SUN 2
- 7 LIV 2 SUN 2
- 8 LIV 1 SUN 1
- 9 LIV 1 SUN 3
- 10 LIV 2 SUN 3
The goals
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 67' | Chemsdine Talbi (Sunderland) | 0–1 | +38% Sunderland |
| 2. 81' | Nordi Mukiele (Liverpool, own goal) | 1–1 | +45% Liverpool |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 14, 2025-26
- Bournemouth 0–1 Everton Dec 2, 2025 · replay 39% for Everton
- Fulham 4–5 Man City Dec 2, 2025 · replay 67% for Man City
- Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham Dec 2, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Wolves 0–1 Forest Dec 3, 2025 · replay 62% for Forest
- Arsenal 2–0 Brentford Dec 3, 2025 · replay 76% for Arsenal
- Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa Dec 3, 2025 · replay 43% for Aston Villa
- Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace Dec 3, 2025 · replay 57% for Crystal Palace
- Leeds 3–1 Chelsea Dec 3, 2025 · replay 52% for Leeds
- Man United 1–1 West Ham Dec 4, 2025 · drawn; replay 20% draws