luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 14 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 3, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa beat Brighton 4–3, but the goals lean toward Brighton: 4 wins in 10 to Aston Villa’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brighton were expected to score 1.4 here and Aston Villa 1.1. An own goal helped Brighton.

Full time

Goals
Brighton & Hove Albion 3
Aston Villa 4

December 3, 2025

Luck index +57 Aston Villa lucky · −57 Brighton

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Brighton win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.

  1. 1 BHA 2 AVL 1
  2. 2 BHA 2 AVL 1
  3. 3 BHA 2 AVL 0
  4. 4 BHA 4 AVL 1
  5. 5 BHA 2 AVL 2
  6. 6 BHA 2 AVL 2
  7. 7 BHA 1 AVL 1
  8. 8 BHA 1 AVL 3
  9. 9 BHA 1 AVL 2
  10. 10 BHA 0 AVL 1

The goals

Brighton’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Brighton was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 9' Jan Paul Van Hecke (Brighton) 1–0 +23% Brighton
2. 29' Pau Torres (Brighton, own goal) 2–0 +13% Brighton
3. 37' Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) 2–1 +13% Aston Villa
4. 45+7' Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) 2–2 +31% Aston Villa
5. 60' Amadou Onana (Aston Villa) 2–3 +36% Aston Villa
6. 78' Donyell Malen (Aston Villa) 2–4 +8% Aston Villa
7. 83' Jan Paul Van Hecke (Brighton) 3–4 +5% Brighton

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 43% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 14 matches, 2025-26 · Brighton · Aston Villa

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