Matchday 17 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 21, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Aston Villa 2–1 Man United: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat Man United 2–1, but the goals call it even: Aston Villa win 4 of 10, Man United 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 1.6 here and Man United 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 2 |
 Manchester United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +50 Aston Villa lucky · −50 Man United
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 4, 3 end level, Man United win 3.
- 1 AVL 1 MUN 0
- 2 AVL 3 MUN 2
- 3 AVL 3 MUN 1
- 4 AVL 3 MUN 0
- 5 AVL 2 MUN 2
- 6 AVL 0 MUN 0
- 7 AVL 1 MUN 1
- 8 AVL 2 MUN 5
- 9 AVL 0 MUN 2
- 10 AVL 1 MUN 2
The goals
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45' | Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) | 1–0 | +29% Aston Villa |
| 2. 45+3' | Matheus Cunha (Man United) | 1–1 | +30% Man United |
| 3. 57' | Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) | 2–1 | +32% Aston Villa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2025-26
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Bournemouth 1–1 Burnley Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Wolves 0–2 Brentford Dec 20, 2025 · replay 66% for Brentford
- Brighton 0–0 Sunderland Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Man City 3–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2025 · replay 83% for Man City
- Tottenham 1–2 Liverpool Dec 20, 2025 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Leeds 4–1 Crystal Palace Dec 20, 2025 · replay 60% for Leeds
- Everton 0–1 Arsenal Dec 20, 2025 · replay 68% for Arsenal
- Fulham 1–0 Forest Dec 22, 2025 · replay 58% for Fulham