Matchday 21 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 6, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
West Ham 1–2 Forest: lucky or expected?
Forest beat West Ham 2–1, but the goals call it even: Forest win 3 of 10, West Ham 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.4 here and Forest 1.4. An own goal helped West Ham.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 |
 Nottingham Forest | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 Forest lucky · −49 West Ham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 3 end level, Forest win 3.
- 1 WHU 4 NFO 3
- 2 WHU 3 NFO 2
- 3 WHU 2 NFO 0
- 4 WHU 2 NFO 0
- 5 WHU 2 NFO 2
- 6 WHU 3 NFO 3
- 7 WHU 2 NFO 2
- 8 WHU 0 NFO 3
- 9 WHU 3 NFO 5
- 10 WHU 0 NFO 1
The goals
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Murillo (West Ham, own goal) | 1–0 | +23% West Ham |
| 2. 55' | Nicolas Dominguez (Forest) | 1–1 | +32% Forest |
| 3. 89' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest, penalty) | 1–2 | +49% Forest |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Forest win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2025-26
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea Jan 7, 2026 · replay 52% for Fulham
- Brentford 3–0 Sunderland Jan 7, 2026 · replay 61% for Brentford
- Bournemouth 3–2 Tottenham Jan 7, 2026 · replay 64% for Bournemouth
- Man City 1–1 Brighton Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 1–1 Wolves Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Burnley 2–2 Man United Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Newcastle 4–3 Leeds Jan 7, 2026 · replay 58% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Jan 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws