Matchday 21 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 7, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Burnley 2–2 Man United: lucky or expected?
Burnley and Man United drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Burnley win 2 of 10, Man United 6, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Burnley were expected to score 1.2 here and Man United 2.2. An own goal helped Burnley.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Burnley | 2 |
 Manchester United | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +20 Burnley about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Burnley win 2, 2 end level, Man United win 6.
- 1 BUR 2 MUN 1
- 2 BUR 2 MUN 0
- 3 BUR 1 MUN 1
- 4 BUR 1 MUN 1
- 5 BUR 1 MUN 5
- 6 BUR 0 MUN 3
- 7 BUR 2 MUN 4
- 8 BUR 0 MUN 2
- 9 BUR 1 MUN 2
- 10 BUR 0 MUN 1
The goals
Burnley’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Ayden Heaven (Burnley, own goal) | 1–0 | +23% Burnley |
| 2. 50' | Benjamin Sesko (Man United) | 1–1 | +30% Man United |
| 3. 60' | Benjamin Sesko (Man United) | 1–2 | +36% Man United |
| 4. 66' | Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) | 2–2 | +38% Burnley |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 21, 2025-26
- West Ham 1–2 Forest Jan 6, 2026 · replay 51% for Forest
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea Jan 7, 2026 · replay 52% for Fulham
- Brentford 3–0 Sunderland Jan 7, 2026 · replay 61% for Brentford
- Bournemouth 3–2 Tottenham Jan 7, 2026 · replay 64% for Bournemouth
- Man City 1–1 Brighton Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 1–1 Wolves Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Newcastle 4–3 Leeds Jan 7, 2026 · replay 58% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Jan 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws