Matchday 26 · Premier League 2025-26 · February 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Brentford 1–1 Arsenal: lucky or expected?
Brentford and Arsenal drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Brentford win 2 of 10, Arsenal 5, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brentford were expected to score 1.0 here and Arsenal 1.6.
What the goals say
Luck index +14 Brentford about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Brentford win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 BRE 2 ARS 1
- 2 BRE 2 ARS 0
- 3 BRE 1 ARS 1
- 4 BRE 1 ARS 1
- 5 BRE 2 ARS 2
- 6 BRE 0 ARS 3
- 7 BRE 1 ARS 3
- 8 BRE 2 ARS 4
- 9 BRE 0 ARS 1
- 10 BRE 1 ARS 2
The goals
Brentford’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 61' | Noni Madueke (Arsenal) | 0–1 | +36% Arsenal |
| 2. 71' | Keane Lewis-Potter (Brentford) | 1–1 | +40% Brentford |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 26, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–2 Leeds Feb 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Feb 10, 2026 · replay 47% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 10, 2026 · replay 48% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 1–1 Man United Feb 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton Feb 11, 2026 · replay 57% for Aston Villa
- Man City 3–0 Fulham Feb 11, 2026 · replay 78% for Man City
- Forest 0–0 Wolves Feb 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Burnley Feb 11, 2026 · replay 29% for Burnley
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Feb 11, 2026 · replay 51% for Liverpool