Matchday 26 · Premier League 2025-26 · February 11, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 3–0 Fulham: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Fulham 3–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.1 here and Fulham 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 |
 Fulham | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +22 Man City about even · −22 Fulham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Fulham win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 FUL 1
- 2 MCI 1 FUL 0
- 3 MCI 2 FUL 1
- 4 MCI 2 FUL 0
- 5 MCI 2 FUL 0
- 6 MCI 4 FUL 1
- 7 MCI 4 FUL 0
- 8 MCI 2 FUL 2
- 9 MCI 0 FUL 0
- 10 MCI 0 FUL 1
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | Antoine Semenyo (Man City) | 1–0 | +25% Man City |
| 2. 30' | Nico Oreilly (Man City) | 2–0 | +13% Man City |
| 3. 39' | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 3–0 | +4% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–2 Leeds Feb 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Feb 10, 2026 · replay 47% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 10, 2026 · replay 48% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 1–1 Man United Feb 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton Feb 11, 2026 · replay 57% for Aston Villa
- Forest 0–0 Wolves Feb 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Burnley Feb 11, 2026 · replay 29% for Burnley
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Feb 11, 2026 · replay 51% for Liverpool
- Brentford 1–1 Arsenal Feb 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws