luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 26 · Premier League 2025-26 · February 11, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Crystal Palace 2–3 Burnley: lucky or expected?

Burnley beat Crystal Palace 3–2, but the goals lean toward Crystal Palace: 6 wins in 10 to Burnley’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Crystal Palace were expected to score 1.8 here and Burnley 0.9. An own goal helped Burnley.

Full time

Goals
Crystal Palace 2
Burnley 3

February 11, 2026

Luck index +71 Burnley very lucky · −71 Crystal Palace

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 6, 2 end level, Burnley win 2.

  1. 1 CRY 1 BUR 0
  2. 2 CRY 1 BUR 0
  3. 3 CRY 3 BUR 1
  4. 4 CRY 3 BUR 1
  5. 5 CRY 3 BUR 0
  6. 6 CRY 4 BUR 0
  7. 7 CRY 0 BUR 0
  8. 8 CRY 2 BUR 2
  9. 9 CRY 1 BUR 2
  10. 10 CRY 1 BUR 2

The goals

Crystal Palace’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Crystal Palace was ahead in it, below while Burnley was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 17' Jorgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace) 1–0 +24% Crystal Palace
2. 33' Jorgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace) 2–0 +13% Crystal Palace
3. 40' Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) 2–1 +13% Burnley
4. 44' Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) 2–2 +29% Burnley
5. 45+2' Jefferson Lerma (Burnley, own goal) 2–3 +32% Burnley

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Burnley win 29% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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