Matchday 30 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 3–1 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Aston Villa 3–1, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Aston Villa, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 1.9 here and Aston Villa 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 |
 Aston Villa | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Man United lucky · −37 Aston Villa
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 2 end level, Aston Villa win 3.
- 1 MUN 3 AVL 2
- 2 MUN 2 AVL 1
- 3 MUN 3 AVL 1
- 4 MUN 4 AVL 2
- 5 MUN 4 AVL 0
- 6 MUN 1 AVL 1
- 7 MUN 0 AVL 0
- 8 MUN 2 AVL 4
- 9 MUN 2 AVL 3
- 10 MUN 2 AVL 3
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 53' | Casemiro (Man United) | 1–0 | +31% Man United |
| 2. 64' | Ross Barkley (Aston Villa) | 1–1 | +35% Aston Villa |
| 3. 71' | Matheus Cunha (Man United) | 2–1 | +38% Man United |
| 4. 81' | Benjamin Sesko (Man United) | 3–1 | +5% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2025-26
- Sunderland 0–1 Brighton Mar 14, 2026 · replay 49% for Brighton
- Burnley 0–0 Bournemouth Mar 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Newcastle Mar 14, 2026 · replay 40% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 2–0 Everton Mar 14, 2026 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- West Ham 1–1 Man City Mar 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Leeds Mar 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Forest 0–0 Fulham Mar 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Mar 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Brentford 2–2 Wolves Mar 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws